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Old 27-06-2016, 03:20 AM
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川普:印鈔票、清國債! 媒體:美國要變成辛巴威?

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9小時前

Why should you invest in liquid alternatives?
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上(5)月美國共和黨準總統提名人川普,在接受CNN一齣新聞節目的現場call out時,不改嘴砲本色,公開表示美國政府只要多印鈔票就能解決債務問題。這番話確實簡單明瞭,但是 不符美 國政府的實際運作,CNN的財經作家馬上寫了一篇專文簡介美國如何「印錢」,並表示川普的作法 頗有辛巴威作 風——辛巴威之前就是印錢還債,造成超級通貨膨脹,該國經濟因此崩潰。
由於川普本人曾經歷數次破產,每次都靠破產法規免於清償債務並輕易東山再起,所以CNN電訪川 普:如果當上 總統,是否也會如此處理美國的債務與財政赤字?川普在電話中回嗆,會這麼認為的人一定是瘋了。 他說:「美國 政府只要能印鈔票,就絕對不會破產,這還用我說嗎?」言下之意,只要川普當上美國總統,就會下 令增印美元以 清償國債。
川普這句話一出,立刻暴露他的外行。基本上美元發行,是由印製局印製紙鈔、鑄幣局鑄造硬幣,兩 個單位都隸屬 美國財政部。不過美國總統並不是那個扳下印鈔機開關的傢伙。只有獨立運作的中央銀行,美國稱之 為「聯邦準備 理事會」(簡稱聯準會)才有權力命令印製局與鑄幣局印製貨幣。聯準會根據兩個目標決定每年印鈔 量:第一、取 代老舊不堪使用的鈔票或硬幣;第二、為了促進經濟成長而增加必須增加的貨幣量。
如果總統下令聯準會加印更多貨幣清償國債,聯準會也真的去電財政部扳下印鈔機開關會如何?首先 、這會嚴重破 壞聯準會的獨立性;其次、會引發嚴重的通貨膨脹。在一般大學經濟學課堂上,經濟學教授通常會教 導學生增印鈔 票是解決經濟問題的爛方法,何故?因為當政府增印更多鈔票,原本的鈔票就會更不值錢;就像一塊 披薩要切成小 塊均分給其他人,人數越多,每個人分到的披薩片就越小。而且,更多的通貨要追足有限的物資,勢 必造成通貨膨 脹。可以想見,一旦隨意增印鈔票,商店裡馬上會有更多商品漲價。一位在聯準會與財政部任職的經 濟學家說,辛 巴威就是通貨膨脹惡化為超級通貨膨脹的最佳範例。
圖: 印多少鈔票由聯準會決定,由不得美國總統。(圖片: 維基百科/來源: Andyhi18提供)
辛巴威當年苦於財政赤字與外債,於是狂印鈔票還債。結果國內物價急速飆漲,例如,一塊麵包在很 短時間內上漲 超過1兆辛巴威幣。2009年當辛巴威幣貶值到完全沒有價值時,該國經濟也隨之崩潰。為了止血 ,去年6月辛 巴威政府宣布暫停使用辛巴威幣,改以美元為官方貨幣。
所以川普的「印鈔票、清國債」的口號不只嚴重侵害中央銀行的獨立性,還可能讓美國步上辛巴威超 級通貨膨脹的 後塵。辛巴威在國際經濟體系無足輕重,經濟崩潰影響的範圍較小;美國卻是國際經濟火車頭,如果 像辛巴威那樣 ,一定會帶來極龐大的衝擊,各國的日子肯定更不好過。
比起印製實體貨幣,聯準會有更快的方法將大量金錢投進市場,那就是購買各銀行持有的金融資產。 聯準會付錢給 各銀行交換這些有價證券,大量貨幣就這麼進入市場裡。自從1929年經濟大恐慌以來,聯準會就 是用這種買賣 金融資產的方式為金融市場「增加很多鈔票」,我們一般稱這種增加銀行與金融市場現金量的方法為 「量化寬鬆」 (Quantitative Easing, QE)。
延伸閱讀:CNNMoney:How can Trump 'print the money'?
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