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http://tech.sina.cn/t/2015-12-15/det...?&vt=4&pos=108


多家投行预计iPhone销量下滑
2015-12-15 10:46 新浪科技 2021 收藏
　　新浪科技讯 北京时间12月15日上午消息，苹果iPhone销量见顶了吗？过去几周，有多名分析师预计这 款苹果最畅销 的产品2016年的销量可能下滑，他们理由主要源自供应链问题和疲软的市场需求，尤其是发达市 场的饱和。

　　苹果的增长越来越依赖iPhone的需求，而iPad平板电脑销量已经出现下滑，Appl e Watch智能手表的需求并没有明显增长。苹果今年10月预计，今年圣诞购物季的业绩将再创历史记录，主 要 源自最新一代iPhone的强劲需求以及中国市场的销量增长。

　　但部分分析师持怀疑态度，以下为观点摘要：

　　——摩根士丹利在12月13日的报告中下调了iPhone销量预期，目前预计2016财年 销量下滑6% 。这一下滑主要主要因为国际市场的价格较高(不包括中国)，以及发达国家的智能手机渗透率趋于 成熟。该报告 认为，中国是唯一一个在12月季度实现iPhone同比需求增长的市场。

　　——摩根大通同一天发布报告称：“11月销量表明iPhone 6s的弱势周期提前。”该投行将第四财季的iPhone销量预期从之前的7500万部至8000万 部下调至 7500万部至7700万部。

　　——Drexel Hamilton分析师在12月8日的报告中指出，苹果台湾供应商中有97%的公司报告的销售数据都表现疲 软，表明11月营收较上一月下滑6%，过去9年的平均值则接近8%。Drexel Hamilton预计，2016财年第一财季的iPhone销量将同比增长4%，第二财季则会下滑4%。

　　——瑞士信贷在12月1日的报告中指出，苹果今年11月下调了零部件订单，表明iPhon e 6s需求疲软。分析师认为，iPhone接下来几个季度将进入弱势周期，但iPhone用户总量仍 会不断增 长。(书聿)


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...in-fiscal-2016



Have iPhone Sales Peaked? Analysts Predict a Slump Ahead
Selina Wang
Selina_y_wang
December 15, 2015 — 7:05 AM HKT
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Analysts Cut iPhone Forecasts: Have Sales Peaked?
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse all see unit declines
Mature markets mean less demand, combined with supply issues
Is Apple Inc.’s iPhone finally reaching its peak? In the past few weeks, a slew of analysts have predicted that sales of Apple’s best-selling product may slump in 2016, based in part on supply chain issues and partly on weaker demand, especially from saturated developed markets.
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Apple’s growth is increasingly dependent on demand for iPhones, while iPad tablet sales decline and adoption of the Apple Watch remains modest. Apple predicted in October that it will have another record holiday, with revenue being fueled by demand for the latest iPhones and sales in China.


Some analysts are skeptical. Here’s a breakdown of recent assessments:
Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for iPhone unit sales and now estimates a drop of 6 percent in fiscal 2016, according to a Dec. 13 note. The decline is due to higher prices in international markets, excluding China, and maturing smartphone penetration in developed countries. China is the only market with year-over-year iPhone demand growth in the December quarter, according to the report.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. published a report the same day saying “November sales signal signs of early weakness of iPhone 6S cycle.” The bank lowered its forecast for iPhone units to*75 million to 77 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, down from a previous prediction for 75 million to 80 million units.
Drexel Hamilton analysts said in a Dec. 8 note that 97 percent of the companies included in a basket of Apple suppliers in Taiwan had reported sales that gave a weaker performance, suggesting that November revenue fell by 6 percent from the previous month and was less than the average 8 percent increase over the past nine years. Drexel predicts iPhone units to grow 4 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2016 and decline by 4 percent in the second quarter.
Credit Suisse reported in a Dec. 1 note that Apple lowered its component orders in November, suggesting weak demand for the new iPhone 6s. The analysts cite “subdued” iPhone cycle for the next few quarters, but the installed base of iPhone users will grow over time.


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