Experts' views on the likely electoral boundary changes

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With the revelation from PM Lee that the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) was formed 2 months ago, he has also made known that the committee will be drawing up smaller GRCs, with the average size to be reduced to below 5 candidates, and at least 12 SMCs.

Currently, we have:

12 – SMCs
2 – four MP GRCs
11 – five MP GRCs
2 – six MP GRCs

Many political observers are expecting big changes to occur in electoral boundaries for the forthcoming GE.

SMU law professor, Tan Kheng Boon pointed out that if the average number of MPs is reduced, it meant that the five person GRCs will see the most changes. But 6 person one may still remain.

He said, “The committee may split up a few GRCs, the electoral boundaries is likely to see more changes in the coming election.”

2 six person GRCs likely to be split up

Associate Professor Lai Ah Keow analyzed that if the average size is less than 5 persons, the 2 six person GRCs, Ang Mo Kio and Pasir Ris-Punggol, are likely to be split up. Among the five person GRCs, East Coast, Tampines and Marine Parade, are also likely to see some changes.

Prof Lai said, “These GRCs with very narrow winning margins will probably see some adjustment. Those SMCs with very close votes counts in the last election, like Joo Chiat, Potong Pasir, and Mountbatten, may be included into the GRCs.”

“For example Joo Chiat, has seen big changes in development, with many private housing residents, may be absorbed into a GRC. The 4 person GRC of Moulmein-Kallang, covers a large area, is likely to see changes in the coming election. But, the opposition-held constituencies are not like to see changes, to avoid criticism and repulsion,” he added.

Population increase – number of MPs may increase

With the increase in population, the number of MPs may increase. Prof Tan Kheng Boon explained that currently Singapore has 2.46 millions eligible voters, and the ratio of MP to electorate is 1:26,000. If this ratio is not changed, it meant that there may be about 94 to 95 seats in the forthcoming GE, which is more than the current 87 seats.

However, he noted that the ratio is just a guiding principle and not mandated. Also, the guide allows a variance of 30 per cent. Among the current SMCs, most have less than 26,000 voters, like Potong Pasir and Hougang. Whereas Bt Panjang has more voters.

The re-emergence of 3 person GRC

Three person GRC may re-appear back in the coming election, Prof Tan Kheng Boon said. With the average size of MPs reduced to less than 5, it meant that more four person GRCs will appear, and even three person ones may surface as well.

He said, “3 person GRCs existed in 1988 at the inception of the GRC system, but the coming election may see its relaunch.”

NUS Department of Sociology, Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser, also highlighted that as long as it fulfills the requirements of GRCs, which is at least one candidate from a minority race, three person GRC is likely to reappear.

Prof Tan Kheng Boon also felt that three person GRC will not make much difference to PAP or to the opposition parties.

Competition is fairer with less GRCs

Lesser number of GRCs will reduce every parties’ entry barrier to contest in the election. It may be viewed as being fairer.

Prof Tan Ern Ser highlighted that with less GRCs, each party will have an easier task to contest in the election since it’s harder to assemble a team of candidates than to field one candidate. It makes the competition much fairer.

Prof Tan Kheng Boon highlighted that the reduction in the number of MPs in GRC, may also reduce criticisms of candidates that are perceived as “riding on the coattails” of the heavyweight candidates to get into Parliament. At the same time, the damage done to the ruling party for losing one of the GRCs will also be lesser.

3 corner fights may increase

If there are more smaller GRCs or SMCs, it will increase the chance for each opposition party to contest and as a result, some areas may see 3 corner fight or multi-corner fight.

Nonetheless, Prof Tan Kheng Boon said even though it may appear so, as long as WP contests, it will be difficult for the other opposition parties to garner significant votes in the same constituency.

Moreover, SMCs are generally viewed as a fairer 1 vs 1 competition. In the past, PAP had always done well in SMCs, and the candidates were able to stand on their own feet. Like in the last election, it was the first time Amy Khor contested in the newly drawn Hong Kah North SMC, and she won with a 70.61 per cent majority, which was the best result in 2011 GE.

Indeed, even though the ruling party tries hard to paint a picture of taking a moral high ground in the re-drawing of electoral boundaries, political observers still perceive it as an opportunity for them to gain undue advantages in elections.

From past experiences, it has shown that the PAP has a habit of ambushing the opposition parties with ‘lightning elections’. With the ‘bets’ heavily tilted towards this year’s September as the likeliest election date, PM Lee may just spring another surprise by calling for election in August 2015.

Fresh from the disbursement of the GST cash vouchers on 1 Aug, 15th August, 22nd August, and 29th August, are smacked right in the mood of the SG50 celebrations.

What do you think?

http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/07/17...ies-expected/?


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