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14-04-2016, 03:20 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
By-election effect should not be underestimated, but also not overestimated.
Punggol east saw a vote swing of 10% which allowed LLL to win. Prior to that, the last notable swing was 40% at Anson 1981 to allow JBJ to win, but that can be explained because Anson lost the illustrious Devan Nair who had secured it in both 1979 BE and 1980 GE and who subsequently resigned in order to allow the state to appoint him President.
One should also note that LLL had established a firm election result Punggol East in GE in 2011, and JBJ had established a presence in Telok Blangah in 1979 By-Election. and in fact almost won TB in 1980 General Election. This "building-up" record is much better than Chee Soon Juan. So to extrapolate from LLL and JBJ to CSJ would be wrong.
The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?228181-Can-Chee-Soon-Juan-do-a-Lee-Li-Lian-or-a-JBJ&goto=newpost).
By-election effect should not be underestimated, but also not overestimated.
Punggol east saw a vote swing of 10% which allowed LLL to win. Prior to that, the last notable swing was 40% at Anson 1981 to allow JBJ to win, but that can be explained because Anson lost the illustrious Devan Nair who had secured it in both 1979 BE and 1980 GE and who subsequently resigned in order to allow the state to appoint him President.
One should also note that LLL had established a firm election result Punggol East in GE in 2011, and JBJ had established a presence in Telok Blangah in 1979 By-Election. and in fact almost won TB in 1980 General Election. This "building-up" record is much better than Chee Soon Juan. So to extrapolate from LLL and JBJ to CSJ would be wrong.
The best record we have on SDP is 40% Holland-BT 2011 GE, so extrapolating that to BB By-election 2016, we need SDP to best its previous record by at least 10%, or to improve on its best 2015 GE record by at least 17 pecentage points. It also means PAP BB incumbent has suffer a 23% swing compared to 2015 GE. Can CSJ do an LLL or at least half a JBJ?
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?228181-Can-Chee-Soon-Juan-do-a-Lee-Li-Lian-or-a-JBJ&goto=newpost).