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14-09-2015, 04:00 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
... please correct me if my calculations are wrong. :)
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011#Results_summary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011#Results_summary )
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary )
Valid votes EXCLUDES both invalid (e.g. blank or spoilt) votes and those who did not vote.
Total valid votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,015,636
Total valid votes for GE2015 = 2,257,016
For a fairer comparison:
Total valid votes for GE2015 (excluding 116,391 (http://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/Interactives/singapore-general-election/2015-live-election-results/index.html) valid votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,140,625
Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 124,989
As for the "New Citizens" issue, according to:
straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year (https://web.archive.org/web/20150914045837/http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year)
nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepage/Highlights/min-grace-fu-cos-2015-speech.pdf (http://www.nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepage/Highlights/min-grace-fu-cos-2015-speech.pdf)
sgcoldtruth.com/prc-lets-all-rush-to-apply-for-pr-and-citizenship-election-are-over (http://www.sgcoldtruth.com/prc-lets-all-rush-to-apply-for-pr-and-citizenship-election-are-over)
an average of about 19,500 PRs per year for the past seven years (whole of 2008 to whole of 2014) were granted citizenship.
That also happens to be roughly the same average number of people DYING (mostly those above 60 years old, who were probably also mostly pro-PAP) in Singapore per year since 2011:
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths)
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#16 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#16)
Finally, according to:
ica.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Media%20Releases/SDB/Annual%20RBD%20Report_2013.pdf (http://www.ica.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Media%20Releases/SDB/Annual%20RBD%20Report_2013.pdf) (page 10 of the pdf file)
about 200,000 Sinkie babies were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994, and were eligible to vote for the first time in their lives this year.
Total valid PAP votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,212,154
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 = 1,576,784
For a fairer comparison:
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 (excluding 90,448 (http://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/Interactives/singapore-general-election/2015-live-election-results/index.html) valid PAP votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,486,336
Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 274,182
I bet that the VAST majority of these additional 274,182 valid PAP votes came from the roughly 150,000 votes that the Opposition lost (as can be seen in the title of my thread) AND the roughly 200,000 new Sinkie voters, who were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994; of course, some of them probably did not vote or spoilt their votes, and some of those new Sinkie voters must have voted in Tanjong Pagar GRC, which I'm excluding.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?216301-VALID-Opposition-votes-for-GE2011-was-803-482-but-654-289-(ex-TP-GRC)-for-GE2015&goto=newpost).
... please correct me if my calculations are wrong. :)
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011#Results_summary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2011#Results_summary )
wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_general_election,_2015#Results_summary )
Valid votes EXCLUDES both invalid (e.g. blank or spoilt) votes and those who did not vote.
Total valid votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,015,636
Total valid votes for GE2015 = 2,257,016
For a fairer comparison:
Total valid votes for GE2015 (excluding 116,391 (http://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/Interactives/singapore-general-election/2015-live-election-results/index.html) valid votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 2,140,625
Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 124,989
As for the "New Citizens" issue, according to:
straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year (https://web.archive.org/web/20150914045837/http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year)
nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepage/Highlights/min-grace-fu-cos-2015-speech.pdf (http://www.nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepage/Highlights/min-grace-fu-cos-2015-speech.pdf)
sgcoldtruth.com/prc-lets-all-rush-to-apply-for-pr-and-citizenship-election-are-over (http://www.sgcoldtruth.com/prc-lets-all-rush-to-apply-for-pr-and-citizenship-election-are-over)
an average of about 19,500 PRs per year for the past seven years (whole of 2008 to whole of 2014) were granted citizenship.
That also happens to be roughly the same average number of people DYING (mostly those above 60 years old, who were probably also mostly pro-PAP) in Singapore per year since 2011:
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/number-of-births-and-deaths)
singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#16 (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest-data#16)
Finally, according to:
ica.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Media%20Releases/SDB/Annual%20RBD%20Report_2013.pdf (http://www.ica.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Media%20Releases/SDB/Annual%20RBD%20Report_2013.pdf) (page 10 of the pdf file)
about 200,000 Sinkie babies were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994, and were eligible to vote for the first time in their lives this year.
Total valid PAP votes for GE2011 (excluding walkover votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,212,154
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 = 1,576,784
For a fairer comparison:
Total valid PAP votes for GE2015 (excluding 90,448 (http://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/Interactives/singapore-general-election/2015-live-election-results/index.html) valid PAP votes from Tanjong Pagar GRC) = 1,486,336
Difference between both GEs (excluding Tanjong Pagar GRC for the sake of fairness) = + 274,182
I bet that the VAST majority of these additional 274,182 valid PAP votes came from the roughly 150,000 votes that the Opposition lost (as can be seen in the title of my thread) AND the roughly 200,000 new Sinkie voters, who were born from mid-1990 to mid-1994; of course, some of them probably did not vote or spoilt their votes, and some of those new Sinkie voters must have voted in Tanjong Pagar GRC, which I'm excluding.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?216301-VALID-Opposition-votes-for-GE2011-was-803-482-but-654-289-(ex-TP-GRC)-for-GE2015&goto=newpost).