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14-08-2015, 02:50 AM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
12-8-2015 6:44 PM http://sgtalk.org/mybb/images/mobile/posted_0.gif Post: #150 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/Thread-Opposition-walkabout-discussion?pid=1225591#pid1225591) alpha (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/User-alpha) http://sgtalk.org/mybb/images/buddy_offline.gif
Elite Junior
http://sgtalk.org/mybb/uploads/avatars/avatar_3534.gif?dateline=1391841400 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/User-alpha)
Posts: 2,081
Reputation: 9 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/reputation.php?uid=3534) Quote:http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12...eral-election/ (http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12/roy-ngerng-possible-outcomes-of-the-general-election/)
Possible outcomes of the general election
Roy Ngerng
August 12th, 2015
How Many Seats Can the Opposition Win?
As I have written, the PAP has changed the electoral boundaries mainly in the constituencies where the opposition has won more than 40% of the votes at the last election. This shows the the PAP believes that the opposition can potentially win as much as 10% more of the votes at the next election, and that the PAP can lose as much as 10% of the votes, which is why they have changed the boundaries in the hope of confusing voters. So, let’s stay focused.
In addition, if you track the constituencies which did not change their boundaries drastically since the election in 2001, there have been a swing of 10% of the votes to the opposition at each subsequent election in 2006 and 2011, so we can expect that the votes will still swing by about 10% as well to the opposition at the next election, everything else being equal.
The PAP has also attempted to buy votes, such as via the Pioneer Generation Package (though it has been analysed that the “increased subsidies” have been offset by the increase in healthcare bills).
Many commenters have also suggested that the PAP has been giving out new citizenships in the hope that new citizens will vote for them (this effect might be real or not), so as to help them win back the vote shares. The results at the next election will give us an indication of whether the PAP’s underhanded tactics will work.
Next, let’s take a look at the scenarios.
At the next election, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 5% in each constituency (if PAP's vote buying works), the following outcome is what we will see. The opposition will win the seats in their current seats in Aljunied GRC, Hougang SMC and the Punggol East SMC, and also just a few more in East Coast GRC, Fengshan SMC and Potong Pasir SMC.
This would mean that the Worker’s Party (WP) will win 12 seats and the Singapore People’s Party (SPP) will win 1 seat.
Note that the seats won by the opposition are shaded in dark red, red and orange.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide110.jpg?f4cf7f
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide71-640x360.jpg?f4cf7f
Now, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 10% in each constituency as would be the normal trend, then we will see the following outcome. On top of the constituencies won above, the opposition will also win the following additional seats: Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, MacPherson SMC, Marine Parade GRC, Mountbatten SMC, Nee Soon GRC, Sengkang West SMC and Tampines GRC.
This would allow WP to win another 15 seats, the SPP to win another 2 seats, the combined SPP and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win 5 seats and the National Solidarity Party (NSP) to win 5 seats.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide27.jpg?f4cf7f
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide111a.jpg?f4cf7f
At the last election, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) was also the party with the fastest improvement, where the votes that it garnered increased by more than 10%. This shows that SDP has a growing traction and influence among many Singaporeans, and could likely continue with its momentum of gaining support.
This is also helped by the SDP having introduced numerous and credible alternative policies. If I may surmise, they have attracted Singaporeans largely due to having a clear vision and mission, as well as having clearly articulated their policy proposals for Singaporeans.
As such, for the SDP, if the votes to them would swing by 13% to 15%, this would mean that the SDP would be able to win the seats in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, as the following shows.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide31.jpg?f4cf7f
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.singsupplies.com/showthread.php?212673-How-Many-Seats-Can-the-Opposition-Win&goto=newpost).
12-8-2015 6:44 PM http://sgtalk.org/mybb/images/mobile/posted_0.gif Post: #150 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/Thread-Opposition-walkabout-discussion?pid=1225591#pid1225591) alpha (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/User-alpha) http://sgtalk.org/mybb/images/buddy_offline.gif
Elite Junior
http://sgtalk.org/mybb/uploads/avatars/avatar_3534.gif?dateline=1391841400 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/User-alpha)
Posts: 2,081
Reputation: 9 (http://sgtalk.org/mybb/reputation.php?uid=3534) Quote:http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12...eral-election/ (http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12/roy-ngerng-possible-outcomes-of-the-general-election/)
Possible outcomes of the general election
Roy Ngerng
August 12th, 2015
How Many Seats Can the Opposition Win?
As I have written, the PAP has changed the electoral boundaries mainly in the constituencies where the opposition has won more than 40% of the votes at the last election. This shows the the PAP believes that the opposition can potentially win as much as 10% more of the votes at the next election, and that the PAP can lose as much as 10% of the votes, which is why they have changed the boundaries in the hope of confusing voters. So, let’s stay focused.
In addition, if you track the constituencies which did not change their boundaries drastically since the election in 2001, there have been a swing of 10% of the votes to the opposition at each subsequent election in 2006 and 2011, so we can expect that the votes will still swing by about 10% as well to the opposition at the next election, everything else being equal.
The PAP has also attempted to buy votes, such as via the Pioneer Generation Package (though it has been analysed that the “increased subsidies” have been offset by the increase in healthcare bills).
Many commenters have also suggested that the PAP has been giving out new citizenships in the hope that new citizens will vote for them (this effect might be real or not), so as to help them win back the vote shares. The results at the next election will give us an indication of whether the PAP’s underhanded tactics will work.
Next, let’s take a look at the scenarios.
At the next election, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 5% in each constituency (if PAP's vote buying works), the following outcome is what we will see. The opposition will win the seats in their current seats in Aljunied GRC, Hougang SMC and the Punggol East SMC, and also just a few more in East Coast GRC, Fengshan SMC and Potong Pasir SMC.
This would mean that the Worker’s Party (WP) will win 12 seats and the Singapore People’s Party (SPP) will win 1 seat.
Note that the seats won by the opposition are shaded in dark red, red and orange.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide110.jpg?f4cf7f
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide71-640x360.jpg?f4cf7f
Now, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 10% in each constituency as would be the normal trend, then we will see the following outcome. On top of the constituencies won above, the opposition will also win the following additional seats: Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, MacPherson SMC, Marine Parade GRC, Mountbatten SMC, Nee Soon GRC, Sengkang West SMC and Tampines GRC.
This would allow WP to win another 15 seats, the SPP to win another 2 seats, the combined SPP and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win 5 seats and the National Solidarity Party (NSP) to win 5 seats.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide27.jpg?f4cf7f
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide111a.jpg?f4cf7f
At the last election, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) was also the party with the fastest improvement, where the votes that it garnered increased by more than 10%. This shows that SDP has a growing traction and influence among many Singaporeans, and could likely continue with its momentum of gaining support.
This is also helped by the SDP having introduced numerous and credible alternative policies. If I may surmise, they have attracted Singaporeans largely due to having a clear vision and mission, as well as having clearly articulated their policy proposals for Singaporeans.
As such, for the SDP, if the votes to them would swing by 13% to 15%, this would mean that the SDP would be able to win the seats in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, as the following shows.
http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/slide31.jpg?f4cf7f
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.singsupplies.com/showthread.php?212673-How-Many-Seats-Can-the-Opposition-Win&goto=newpost).