PDA

View Full Version : Temasek’s us$10 billion dollar bets carry unnecessary, huge risks


Sammyboy RSS Feed
07-02-2015, 07:20 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

TEMASEK’S US$10 BILLION DOLLAR BETS CARRY UNNECESSARY, HUGE RISKS

Post date:
7 Feb 2015 - 6:12pm


http://therealsingapore.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/field/image/THSPH3815e_2_5.jpg?itok=QB-6ZNXH (http://therealsingapore.com/sites/default/files/field/image/THSPH3815e_2_5.jpg)





Temasek should improve its transparency and publish ALL information on its investments similar toNorway’s Government Pension Fund Global (http://www.nbim.no/globalassets/reports/2013/annual-report/eq_holdings_spu.pdf). When a fund 5 times the size of Temasek is able to publish its entire holding of more than 8,000 equities, why does Temasek only disclose its 42 major investments in 2013 (http://tr13.temasekreview.com.sg/#portfolio-majorInvestments) and 46 in 2014 (http://www.temasekreview.com.sg/en/major-investments.html)?
Moreover, Temasek’s investments have already been compiled by financial data vendors and are available online. Citizens are the owners of our reserves and it is our right to have access to such information. A listed securities portfolio of 74 investments in 2013 is enclosed at the bottom of this post.
The top ten listed investments in market value made up 50% of Temasek’s total assets. Unlike other funds where risk is diversified, Temasek seems to be trying to put as many eggs into one basket as possible with an 18% stake in Standard Chartered PLC and 7% in China Construction Bank, more than S$30 billion invested in 2 foreign banks.
(Market value in US$ million)
.SecurityShares%Market valueCountrySectorTicker1SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD8,283,957,56851.9626430SINGAPORETelecomST SP2CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK-H17,878,670,0507.4414920CHINAFinancials939 HK3STANDARD CHARTERED PLC432,746,14517.8810450BRITAINFinancialsSTAN LN4DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD713,033,74929.229910SINGAPOREFinancialsDBS SP5SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD657,800,74856.116000SINGAPOREIndustrialsSIA SP6SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING1,559,393,44350.265460SINGAPOREIndustri alsSTE SP7CAPITALAND LTD1,680,704,14039.485080SINGAPOREFinancialsCAPL SP8SHIN CORP PCL1,334,354,82541.623950THAILANDTelecomINTUCH TB9SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD883,919,08849.473540SINGAPOREIndustrialsSCI SP10KEPPEL CORP LTD377,344,42520.893290SINGAPOREIndustrialsKEP SP...TotalUS$89 bil
Both investments will have no room for error because their potential losses will dwarf losses of smaller investments.
Has Temasek not learnt any lesson from its US$4.6 billion loss in its Merrill Lynch (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=amntz8g737uY&pid=newsarchive) investment andUS$1.5 billion (80%) loss in Barclays Bank (https://likedatosocanmeh.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/20140914-barclays-investment-confirms-temasek-not-long-term-investor-but-speculator-2/)?
https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/barclays112.jpg?w=652 (https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/barclays112.jpg)
By placing bets of more than US$10 billion on any investment, Temasek has taken risks on behalf of Singaporeans, risks which we would not have assumed. If Temasek’s own costly mistakes are insufficient, it should learn from GIC’s S$14 billion UBS bet in 2007 (http://news.asiaone.com/News/The+Straits+Times/Story/A1Story20071211-40492.html) which is still 40%* underwater after 7 years. (*inclusive of 18% interest payment, dividends and recent forex gains)
Should both banks fail spectacularly, will Lee Kuan Yew step in and tell us that Temasek intends to “keep for the next two to three decades and grow with them (http://utwt.blogspot.sg/2008/04/lee-kuan-yew-aint-no-warren-buffett.html)”?
Standard Chartered investment has been in Temasek’s stable for almost a decade, currently sitting on paper losses of at least 30% without any turnaround in sight. Was this part of Temasek’s investment strategy?
https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/standchart2.jpg?w=652 (https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/standchart2.jpg)
Standard Chartered’s entire profits last year may have been wiped out (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/epic/stan/11375079/Commodities-collapse-could-wipe-out-entire-years-profits-at-Standard-Chartered.html) by the collapse in commodity prices and there appears to be another rights issue on the horizon.
Although dividend payments (http://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/standard-chartered-LON:STAN/dividends/) could have made up for most of the capital loss, including rights issue, forex loss could still amount to some 25% after almost a decade.
https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/standchart20currency20loss1.jpg?w=652 (https://likedatosocanmeh.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/standchart20currency20loss1.jpg)
Should Temasek decide to divest Standard Chartered at current prices, the net loss would be at least S$3 billion. It will take numerous $10 million/$100 million investments to make up for a single huge loss. By taking up such a huge stake, all exits have now been shut and it will take a miracle to dispose of Standard Chartered at a profit.
In 2011, Temasek had indicated it wanted to trim its Standard Chartered stake when it raisedS$650 million from the sale of zero coupon exchangeable bonds (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/temasek-stanchart-idUSL5E7LI1RV20111018) maturing in 2014. Since the bonds were fully redeemed in 2014, Temasek had missed the only opportunity to reduce its holding when the price was more favourable.
Should Temasek realise billion-dollar losses, there will also be political backlash and Temasek appears to be aware of this. Despite stock market making new highs, Standard Chartered shares have gone in the opposite direction. What happens when global stock market tanks?
Temasek’s major investments in China’s financial sector appear to be more profitable but an analysis would be required to confirm this.
China’s double-digit growth during most of the last 2 decades are over. China’s growth story has been based on the expansion of credit – some US$15 trillion after the last financial crisis with a significant amount for financing infrastructure and real estate which includes ghost cities (http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6) generating zero return. Investments at the tail end of China’s phenomenal ‘growth’ carry significant risks.
Video of China’s ghost cities (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpnoPhY1f70)
In April 2014, a Forbes article reported that Li Ka Shing and his family had been “on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August (2013)”. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/20/chinas-warren-buffett-has-just-sold-off-his-china-assets/) Li was way ahead of most foreign investors when it came to investing in China whereas Temasek has only recently committed tens of billion$ of our reserves.
Excluding GLCs transferred to Temasek, Temasek does not appear to be investing but speculating andgoing for the kill with its $10 billion investments.
Temasek seems to be in a hurry to make as much money as possible with humongous bets which are extremely risky. As a significant shareholder in many foreign companies, Temasek is unable to divest during times of great volatility. Temasek should diversify and not make US$10 billion dollar bets which carry unnecessary risks.
**
I have been trying to verify Temasek’s ridiculously high TSR and no luck so far. What I do is Google ‘Temasek’ and ‘name of investment’ and pieces of interesting information will show up on the screen. Frequently, data may not be complete and this is the result of Temasek’s conscious effort not to allow the public to scrutinise its performance. Should others be able to confirm Temasek’s 16% 40-year TSR, please share the information.
2013 May – Temasek listed securities portfolio.
.NAMEMKT VALTICKER1SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD26430ST SP2CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK-H14920939 HK3STANDARD CHARTERED PLC10450STAN LN4DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD9910DBS SP5SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD6000SIA SP6SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING5460STE SP7CAPITALAND LTD5080CAPL SP8SHIN CORP PCL3950INTUCH TB9SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD3540SCI SP10KEPPEL CORP LTD3290KEP SP11IND & COMM BK OF CHINA-H32701398 HK12SP AUSNET2190SPN AU13REPSOL SA1920REP SM14NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD1530NOL SP15BANK OF CHINA LTD-H15203988 HK16LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC1310LVLT US17SATS LTD1230SATS SP18MOSAIC CO/THE1190MOS US19MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST1060MLT SP20MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST970MCT SP21SMRT CORP LTD951MRT SP22EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG853EVK GR23OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD832OLAM SP24HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TR-780HPHT SP25MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST625MINT SP26STATS CHIPPAC LTD619STAT SP27QUINTILES TRANSNATIONAL HOLD376Q US28MEG ENERGY CORP295MEG CN29NEW CHINA LIFE INSURANCE C-H2861336 HK30CHENIERE ENERGY INC277LNG US31TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD266TRQ US32SHANGHAI PHARMACEUTICALS-H2462607 HK33CITYSPRING INFRASTRUCTURE TR224CITY SP34CITIC SECURITIES CO LTD-H1926030 HK35CITIC RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD1191205 HK36AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC115APD US37FACEBOOK INC-A114FB US38KEPPEL REIT92KREIT SP39BAIDU INC – SPON ADR90BIDU US40LAI FUNG HOLDINGS LTD821125 HK41ZOOMLION HEAVY INDUSTRY – H751157 HK42COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD71COS SP43EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC66EXPD US44PETROLEO BRASILEIRO-SPON ADR63PBR/A US45MONSANTO CO60MON US46HUANENG RENEWABLES CORP-H52958 HK47NEWOCEAN ENERGY HLDGS LTD46342 HK48SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT39SEQB MK49COACH INC35COH US50AMYRIS INC33AMRS US51TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD32TGR SP53POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN31POT US52ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST31ART SP55ASIAN CITRUS HOLDINGS LTD26ACHL LN54MARIN SOFTWARE INC26MRIN US56CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST19CCT SP57CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP18CLNE US58SEADRILL LTD16SDRL US59APPLE INC16AAPL US60YY INC-ADR14YY US61PEABODY ENERGY CORP13BTU US63AMTEK ENGINEERING LTD10AMTK SP62CHENIERE ENERGY PARTNERS LP10CQP US64CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC8CF US65AGRIUM INC7AGU CN66ISOFTSTONE HOLDINGS LTD-ADS6ISS US67SHOUGANG CONCORD TECH HLD6521 HK68DYNA-MAC HOLDINGS LTD6DMHL SP69MELCO CROWN ENTERTAINME-ADR5MPEL US70CEI CONTRACT MANUFACTURING5CEI SP71INTREPID POTASH INC5IPI US72SEMBCORP MARINE LTD4SMM SP73SINGAPORE POST LTD0.7SPOST SP74M DREAM INWORLD LTD0.088100 HK.TOTAL MARKET VALUEUS$113.5 bil






2012 Sep
.NAMEMKT VALTICKER1SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD23660ST SP2CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK-H12220939 HK3STANDARD CHARTERED PLC10400STAN LN4DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD8400DBS SP5SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD5790SIA SP6SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING4430STE SP7CAPITALAND LTD4410CAPL SP8SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD4090SCI SP9KEPPEL CORP LTD3540KEP SP10SHIN CORP PCL2980INTUCH TB11IND & COMM BK OF CHINA-H26201398 HK12SP AUSNET1800SPN AU13NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD1630NOL SP14BANK OF CHINA LTD-H11703988 HK15MOSAIC CO/THE1160MOS US16SMRT CORP LTD1120MRT SP17SATS LTD1040SATS SP18MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST918MLT SP19HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TR-U766HPHT SP20MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST742MCT SP21OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD663OLAM SP22MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST556MINT SP23STATS CHIPPAC LTD535STAT SP24MEG ENERGY CORP461MEG CN25INMET MINING CORPORATION394IMN CN26CHENIERE ENERGY INC258LNG US27NEW CHINA LIFE INSURANCE C-H2291336 HK28SHANGHAI PHARMACEUTICALS-H2192607 HK29TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD204TGR SP30CITYSPRING INFRASTRUCTURE TR201CITY SP31CITIC SECURITIES CO LTD-H1566030 HK32SHANGRI-LA HOTELS (MAL) BHD140SHMB MK33CITIC RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD1261205 HK34BLACKROCK INC114BLK US35COSCO CORP SINGAPORE LTD91COS SP36BAIDU INC – SPON ADR78BIDU US37PETROLEO BRASILEIRO-SPON ADR75PBR/A US38LAI FUNG HOLDINGS LTD581125 HK39TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD50TRQ CN40SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT48SEQB MK41ASIAN CITRUS HOLDINGS LTD32ACHL LN42ISHARES S&P 500 INDEX FUND27IVV US43SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST26SPY US44CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP23CLNE US45HUANENG RENEWABLES CORP-H20958 HK46AMYRIS INC19AMRS US47SEMBCORP MARINE LTD18SMM SP48MELCO CROWN ENTERTAINME-ADR17MPEL US49PEABODY ENERGY CORP16BTU US50CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST16CCT SP51SEADRILL LTD15SDRL NO53ISOFTSTONE HOLDINGS LTD-ADS8ISS US52MINDRAY MEDICAL INTL LTD-ADR8MR US55ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO-CL A6ANF US54SHOUGANG CONCORD TECH HLD6521 HK56CEI CONTRACT MANUFACTURING5CEI SP57AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROU4AIG US58MONSANTO CO4MON US59SUNNINGDALE TECH LTD4SUNN SP60SICHUAN MEIFENG CHEM INDUS-A3000731 CH61KOSMOS ENERGY LTD2KOS US63DYNA-MAC HOLDINGS LTD2DMHL SP62POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN1POT CN64SINGAPORE POST LTD0.58SPOST SP65NQ MOBILE INC – ADR0.27NQ US66M DREAM INWORLD LTD0.068100 HK.TOTAL MARKET VALUE97824.91



Phillip Ang
*The writer blogs at https://likedatosocanmeh.wordpress.com/


Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?200002-Temasek’s-us-10-billion-dollar-bets-carry-unnecessary-huge-risks&goto=newpost).