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21-10-2014, 02:10 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
One of the important lesson from GE 2011 which has been overlooked by most people is that opposition party CAN LOSE their seat EVEN when there is a high VOTE SWING AGAINST PAP of over 10%!
SPP lost Potong Pasir even though there was a Popular vote swing against PAP of over 10% in GE2011. So we should not be overly complacent about the situation in opposition wards.
...............
My reply to some people who have doubts over the "WP Danger Zones" view:
WP won Aljunied with 54% by having 1 MP plus 1 NCMP and a Supers Star. 54% is by the way, within statistical standard errors. It means that it is within swinging zone. It means Aljunied GRC has been WP Danger Zone right from the start. It also applies to Punggol East.
This is a realistic view which is not blinded by the cheers and singing from the ground you see. And these results were achieved with some high expectation from voters on WP.
If WP has been performing extremely well on both National and domestic fronts, has shown good performance in parliament as well as managing their estates well, they might have strengthen their grip on Aljunied and Punggol East. However, the reverse is true.
Dont be blinded by what you see from die hard opposition or WP supporters but rather, look carefully at the frowns of those silent middle ground. They will be ultimately the king makers.
.................
Yes, I am rather pessimistic about opposition parties' prospect for the next GE if it just happens within two months from now. We may end up with opposition winning only 1 SMC if we are not careful about it.
There are a few reasons:
1) There will definitely be MORE 3 or multi-corner fights which will apparently benefits PAP. This is partly due to WP publicly declaring it will "walk its own path" and also due to "overcrowding" with more new participants in the opposition camp.
2) The aggressive introduction of numerous New Citizens may help PAP tip the balance totally in their favour. This can be seen in the active recruitment of New Citizens and even PRs in PAP's grassroot machinery, including PA's RCs and CCCs. They form a powerful network among the NEW VOTERS.
3) After the painful loss of Aljunied GRC and Punggol SMC, PAP has started to fortify their "DANGER ZONES" like Tampines, East Coast, Marine Parade etc.
4) Unfortunately, Aljunied GRC and Punggol East have become WP's "Danger Zones" with numerous complains from the residents on municipal issues. Unlike Hougang in the past, WP didn't manage to fortify its win in these new trophy wards but instead, have antagonized part of the middle ground voters with the estate management issues.
5) The "Danger" in these wards is further enhanced with erosion of confidence in WP and opposition as a whole, when most people feel that WP has over-promised of "First World Parliament" but ended up with under-performance in its parliamentary debates.
6) The Pioneer Package's effect cannot be underestimated. I believe this is planned to coincide with the strategy to sway the votes of the elderly who may be influenced by the inevitable passing of LKY. Singapore is an aging population and the votes of the pioneer generation will be critical for PAP.
7) PAP knows it may not turn the tide of the young voters' awakening. Thus it has re-calibrated its strategy to woo the NEW Citizens' votes as well as the Pioneer generation. In Singapore's First Past the Posts system, even if PAP's popular votes drop, as long as it could manage just 51% in almost all wards, it will still win most of the seats.
8) Thus, while we may feel that more people are more vocal, demanding, hating or even aggressive in their daily blasting of PAP, all these may translate into lower popular votes for PAP but not necessary translate into more seats for opposition.
9) Singaporeans are well known for their Pendulum Swing in their voting pattern. It is hard to win their confidence politically, even more so to convince them to continue to have confidence in opposition with current performance of opposition overall. Once you lose their confidence, it will take decade to win them back.
All in all, it would be lucky for us if we could keep status quo for opposition with WP winning back what it is holding now. I really hope WP could hold their position as such, even if it wins by a lower margin, it is still a win.
The worst case scenario is that we will be hammered back to the position of 2006 where we are left with only 1 seat in Hougang.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?192405-GMS-My-whack-WP-fever-is-back!&goto=newpost).
One of the important lesson from GE 2011 which has been overlooked by most people is that opposition party CAN LOSE their seat EVEN when there is a high VOTE SWING AGAINST PAP of over 10%!
SPP lost Potong Pasir even though there was a Popular vote swing against PAP of over 10% in GE2011. So we should not be overly complacent about the situation in opposition wards.
...............
My reply to some people who have doubts over the "WP Danger Zones" view:
WP won Aljunied with 54% by having 1 MP plus 1 NCMP and a Supers Star. 54% is by the way, within statistical standard errors. It means that it is within swinging zone. It means Aljunied GRC has been WP Danger Zone right from the start. It also applies to Punggol East.
This is a realistic view which is not blinded by the cheers and singing from the ground you see. And these results were achieved with some high expectation from voters on WP.
If WP has been performing extremely well on both National and domestic fronts, has shown good performance in parliament as well as managing their estates well, they might have strengthen their grip on Aljunied and Punggol East. However, the reverse is true.
Dont be blinded by what you see from die hard opposition or WP supporters but rather, look carefully at the frowns of those silent middle ground. They will be ultimately the king makers.
.................
Yes, I am rather pessimistic about opposition parties' prospect for the next GE if it just happens within two months from now. We may end up with opposition winning only 1 SMC if we are not careful about it.
There are a few reasons:
1) There will definitely be MORE 3 or multi-corner fights which will apparently benefits PAP. This is partly due to WP publicly declaring it will "walk its own path" and also due to "overcrowding" with more new participants in the opposition camp.
2) The aggressive introduction of numerous New Citizens may help PAP tip the balance totally in their favour. This can be seen in the active recruitment of New Citizens and even PRs in PAP's grassroot machinery, including PA's RCs and CCCs. They form a powerful network among the NEW VOTERS.
3) After the painful loss of Aljunied GRC and Punggol SMC, PAP has started to fortify their "DANGER ZONES" like Tampines, East Coast, Marine Parade etc.
4) Unfortunately, Aljunied GRC and Punggol East have become WP's "Danger Zones" with numerous complains from the residents on municipal issues. Unlike Hougang in the past, WP didn't manage to fortify its win in these new trophy wards but instead, have antagonized part of the middle ground voters with the estate management issues.
5) The "Danger" in these wards is further enhanced with erosion of confidence in WP and opposition as a whole, when most people feel that WP has over-promised of "First World Parliament" but ended up with under-performance in its parliamentary debates.
6) The Pioneer Package's effect cannot be underestimated. I believe this is planned to coincide with the strategy to sway the votes of the elderly who may be influenced by the inevitable passing of LKY. Singapore is an aging population and the votes of the pioneer generation will be critical for PAP.
7) PAP knows it may not turn the tide of the young voters' awakening. Thus it has re-calibrated its strategy to woo the NEW Citizens' votes as well as the Pioneer generation. In Singapore's First Past the Posts system, even if PAP's popular votes drop, as long as it could manage just 51% in almost all wards, it will still win most of the seats.
8) Thus, while we may feel that more people are more vocal, demanding, hating or even aggressive in their daily blasting of PAP, all these may translate into lower popular votes for PAP but not necessary translate into more seats for opposition.
9) Singaporeans are well known for their Pendulum Swing in their voting pattern. It is hard to win their confidence politically, even more so to convince them to continue to have confidence in opposition with current performance of opposition overall. Once you lose their confidence, it will take decade to win them back.
All in all, it would be lucky for us if we could keep status quo for opposition with WP winning back what it is holding now. I really hope WP could hold their position as such, even if it wins by a lower margin, it is still a win.
The worst case scenario is that we will be hammered back to the position of 2006 where we are left with only 1 seat in Hougang.
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://sammyboy.com/showthread.php?192405-GMS-My-whack-WP-fever-is-back!&goto=newpost).